It took eight weeks into the season before we got an ATS push. It took overtime for Indiana to beat Michigan 13-6, and the difference only landed on that number because Michigan had to try for the tie, but it ended up directly on the Indiana -7 number. That result, as part of a 2-3-1 […]
It took eight weeks into the season before we got an ATS push. It took overtime for Indiana to beat Michigan 13-6, and the difference only landed on that number because Michigan had to try for the tie, but it ended up directly on the Indiana -7 number. That result, as part of a 2-3-1 overall week, leaves me every so slightly over .500 on the season at 24-23-1 ATS and 33-15 SU.
Washington @ Nebraska (-7.5)
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Going into this season, I had my eye on this game as maybe the most pivotal one on the entire schedule. Instead, at 4-3, the season already looks mostly lost, at least from the perspective of preseason expectations. Of course, this game hinges on some of the same things that have caused the letdown so far. Namely, Demond Williams may or may not play at QB after Elijah Brown sparked the offense in Demond’s stead. Whoever plays at QB will have to deal with a defense that has given up only 15.4 points per game and leads the nation in third-down defense. Whoever lines up under center will be missing Landen Hatchett, who is out for the rest of the year, forcing an already jumbled offensive line to reshuffle once again.
The Dawgs’ hopes depend on the defense’s ability to contain QB Anthony Colandrea and receiver Kwazi Gilmer. UW has had trouble in limited exposure to mobile QBs. If they can’t contain Colandrea, it could lead to extend possessions. It’s not a given that Nebraska’s offense will excel. They lost their last two against Oregon and Indiana with 14 and 17 points, respectively. The Huskies will cover if Nebraska’s offense plays like that again, but I have concerns about whether the defense can get off the field enough.
Nebraska 28 – Washington 20
Wisconsin @ Iowa (-3.5)
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Despite their 5-2 record, Wisconsin’s offense has not lit the world on fire. They are gaining 330 yards per game. With Iowa’s defense again one of the nation’s best, the Badgers have to play above their established level to be in the game. As usual, Iowa will try to run the ball with Kamari Moulton. Kinnick Stadium will be a big factor for the Hawkeyes, and I trust their offense just a bit more.
Iowa 20 – Wisconsin 14
Minnesota @ Indiana (-20.5)
The Gophers are one of the most unpredictable teams in the conference. They have wins over Iowa, Michigan, and Washington, but were also blown out by Mississippi St and Purdue. Indiana has been more steady in conference, but maybe not in the way they would want. The Hoosiers have played four one-possession games in five, including the loss to OSU and last week’s OT win over Michigan. As long as Minnesota can establish at least something of a rushing threat, this game should be quite a bit closer than the big spread.
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Indiana 31 – Minnesota 17
Northwestern @ Oregon (-3.5)
Just like the Wisconsin-Iowa game, this one features a ranked visitor getting more than a FG on the spread against an unranked host. The Ducks announced that Dante Moore will be out for the year, but most of the receiving corps should be back from their suspensions from last week. With or without their receivers, the Ducks haven’t cracked 20 points in a month. Oregon should have the talent advantage, but Northwestern has simply played better through the year and has a big advantage in TO-differential. I’ll start giving Oregon the benefit of the doubt when they start playing better.
Northwestern 27 – Iowa 24
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Purdue @ Penn St (-7.5)
Speaking of teams who haven’t done much to earn the benefit of the doubt, Penn St enters on a four-game losing streak and desperate to reverse momentum after the bye week. We saw in the Purdue-UW game that the Boilermakers can make a struggling offense look pretty good. I don’t trust them to shut down the Nittany Lions, but Fame Ijeboi is a solid running back who could help them keep the game close. Despite the better play from Purdue this year, I have a hunch that Penn St has another gear and Purdue has probably already played its best games.
Penn St 30 – Purdue 21
Ohio St @ USC (+4.5)
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USC fans have been down on this team for most of the year, but the 6-1 record going into last week’s game against Wisconsin was definitely respectable. Losing that game decisively puts the team back in a hole. The Buckeyes come off a bye and have been rock-solid after losing their opener to Texas. The absence of QB Julian Sayin cracks the door open, but Jeremiah Smith will make any QB’s life easier. The USC defense is not good enough to punish the Ohio St during the QB transition, either.
Ohio St 31 – USC 24