Check out the best college football betting picks and odds for the Week 12 non-conference battle between the Oregon State Beavers and Air Force Falcons on Saturday, November 16, 2024.
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Oregon State sinks without trace
The Oregon State Beavers (4-5; 2-7 ATS) have dropped four consecutive games. During that stretch, the Beavers have recorded a couple of road losses at Nevada 42-37 and California 44-7 along with a pair of home defeats to UNLV 33-25 and San Jose State 24-13.
The Beavers have only scored 20 points over their last two outings. Junior QB Gevani McCoy was benched in the first half of the loss at Cal, and former starter Ben Gulbranson and freshman Gabarri Johnson played the rest of the game.
Gulbranson got the nod last week, throwing for 292 yards and two interceptions in that 11-point loss against SJSU. The Beavers blew a 13-10 lead, allowing the Spartans to score two unanswered touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
“Just kept stalling. Driving the ball, getting in the red zone and not putting points on the board, getting in the end zone. And you can’t do that against a team that can score like they can,” Oregon State coach Trent Bray said. “Early in the game, I thought Gulbranson was doing some good things. He made some throws, he was managing. Obviously, late in the game, the interceptions hurt us.”
Oregon State scores 25.8 points per game (tied-83rd in the nation) while surrendering 28.8 points in return (tied-95th). The Beavers lean on their ground game, racking up 212.8 rushing yards per contest (16th).
However, without Gevani McCoy under center, the Beavers lose a weapon. McCoy has 55 carries for 308 yards and five touchdowns this season. He’s thrown for 1,300 yards, three touchdowns, and six interceptions across eight games. Junior RB Anthony Hankerson leads the way for the Beavers with 870 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns.
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Air Force just snapped a seven-game skid
The Air Force Falcons are finally back on the right track. After dropping seven consecutive games since a 21-6 victory over Merrimack in their season opener, the Falcons defeated Fresno State 36-28 in Week 11.
The Falcons outgained the Bulldogs 358-284 in total yards and won the turnover battle 1-0. Air Force held Fresno State to minus-5 rushing yards while notching 344 in return. The Falcons kept the ball in possession for 45:08.
Sophomore signal-caller Quentin Hayes completed two of his six passing attempts against Fresno State, throwing for 14 yards and a touchdown. He carried the pigskin 25 times for 91 yards and two touchdowns, and junior RB Dylan Carson had 33 carries for 120 yards and a TD.
The Falcons have struggled a lot this season after losing the majority of their starters from their 2023 roster. Air Force tallies just 16.2 points per game (tied-130th in the nation). Quentin Hayes leads the team in carries (79) and rushing yards (276), while senior WR Cade Harris has scored the team-high five touchdowns.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons allow 26.7 points per game (tied-82nd). Their defense ranks 23rd in the nation in passing yards (183.6 per game) and 102nd in rushing yards (173.1).
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Full-Game Side Bet
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It’s unknown who will start under center for Oregon State. The Beavers might opt for Gevani McCoy because the Falcons’ run D has been pretty bad for most of the season. Still, it showed up last week and completely shut down Fresno State’s ground game.
I like the Falcons in this matchup. The Beavers’ run defense has been bad, too, surrendering 172.9 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry. The Falcons should be able to move the chains frequently, and they must be fired up following that victory over Fresno State.
Both teams have struggled against the number lately. Oregon State is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall and 1-5 ATS in its last six road tilts. Air Force is 3-11 ATS in its previous 14 games overall and 1-6 ATS in its last seven home contests.
Prediction: Air Force Falcons +3.5 (-115)
Full-Game Total Pick
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The Falcons’ run D shined against Fresno State, but the clash against Oregon State will be a much taller task. The Beavers’ ground game will find some success, and Oregon State could also throw the ball a bit. Hereof, we should see both teams move the chains frequently, and I expect to see more than 45 points on the scoreboard.
Oregon State has allowed at least 24 points in five straight outings. Air Force has surrendered 20 or more in seven consecutive showings. I know that both teams will pound the rock a lot, but it’s hard to trust these two defenses to make stops in the red zone.
Prediction: Over 45.5 Points (-105)
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