Oregon State and Washington State announced an unusual scheduling arrangement for 2025. Here is how it affects strength of schedule.
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College football schedules are the latest facet of the game impacted by conference realignment. Oregon State and Washington State announced last Wednesday that they will face off twice during the 2025 regular season. The two teams have agreed to a home-and-home arrangement, with the first game scheduled at Oregon State on November 1, 2025, and the second at Washington State on November 29, 2025. This unique setup not only allows for the continuation of their rivalry but also provides both schools with an opportunity to bolster their strength of schedule amidst the changing landscape. While this arrangement is certainly unusual, it is not entirely unprecedented; similar scheduling decisions have occurred in the past when teams sought to maintain competitive balance and engage fans during tumultuous times in college football.
How Did We Get Here?
Last year, the Pac-12 underwent significant changes, resulting in USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington joining the Big Ten, while Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State moved to the Big 12. Stanford and Cal have also transitioned to the ACC. As a result, Oregon State and Washington State will be the only remaining members of the Pac-12 for the 2025 season. While conference realignment has led to the future inclusion of teams like Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, and Utah State in the Pac-12, these additions are not set to take place until 2026.
For the 2024 season, Oregon State and Washington State secured a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West, allowing them to play six Mountain West teams throughout the season. However, this agreement will not be renewed for the following year, leaving the two teams to navigate a conference of just two members and construct a schedule similar to that of an independent team.
Historical Precedent
In statistical terms, a regular-season home-and-home arrangement is exceedingly rare. Since 2018, only two teams have engaged in such an arrangement, resulting in a likelihood of occurrence of less than 1%.
The most recent example of a home-and-home agreement occurred several seasons ago between two independent teams. In the 2018 and 2019 regular seasons, the Liberty Flames and the New Mexico State Aggies—now members of Conference USA—were independent schools seeking to fill their schedules. As a result, the pair of teams played each other four times in a span of 14 months. Liberty went 3-1 in those four matchups. In 2018, New Mexico State won at home 49-41, while Liberty claimed victory at home 28-21. The following year, Liberty won 20-13 on the road in Las Cruces and again triumphed 49-28 at home. After both schools joined Conference USA in 2023, they began an annual matchup, alternating venues each year. Notably, in 2023, the two teams faced off in both the regular season and the Conference USA championship, with Liberty winning both games, including their 2024 matchup.
Strength of Schedule Outlook
Just as with Liberty and New Mexico State before them, Oregon State and Washington State are not expected to feature a regular home-and-home series on their schedules; rather, it serves as a bridge between the final year of the “Pac-2” and the subsequent season’s full conference slate. Besides the matchups against each other, Oregon State’s schedule includes games against five current Power 4 schools, and Washington State’s schedule includes games against only three current Power 4 schools. In an Oregon State press release, OSU Athletic Director Scott Barnes said, “We elected to play two games against Washington State in order to maximize the strength of this schedule, which includes intriguing matchups both at home and on the road.” A strong schedule is crucial for securing a potential college football playoff berth.
Analyzing the published schedules for each team’s 2025 season and the opponents’ rankings in the CBS Sports Rankings as of October 21, 2024—which ranks college football teams from 1 to 134—supports Barnes’ assertion regarding improved strength of schedule. Without the matchups against Washington State, the average opponent ranking for Oregon State’s 2025 schedule stands at 74. However, this number rises to 66 with the inclusion of the two in-conference games. For Washington State, the increase in opponent quality is less pronounced, shifting from an average ranking of 71.75 without Oregon State to 70.8 when including them.
Higher-stakes games tend to attract greater viewership, making strength of schedule increasingly important for teams. This season, the two Pac-12 schools had a television deal with the CW averaging around 433,000 viewers through October 9 and featuring some of the most watched games on the network this season, including 568,000 viewers for the Week 6 Oregon State-Colorado State game. A stronger schedule not only enhances the quality of opponents but also boosts television ratings, increasing the overall value of the programs. Surely looking to build on 2024 season’s momentum and lay the groundwork for a future Pac-12 media deal, playing each other twice in 2025 is a strategic move that not only elevates their strength of schedule but also positions them for improved viewership and value in a competitive landscape.
The Road Ahead
When Oregon State and Washington State last played each other twice in the 1945 season, Washington State swept the series. However, the landscape of college football has undergone seismic shifts since then, revealing both the potential and pitfalls of modern scheduling practices.
This unique arrangement is emblematic of everything that is both right and wrong with college football today. On one hand, it’s a lamentable sign of the times—a necessity borne from the fragmentation of the Pac-12 as schools sought greener pastures. It underscores the challenges of maintaining regional rivalries amid a relentless pursuit of revenue and exposure. Yet, on the other hand, it celebrates the resilience of Oregon State and Washington State, who have forged their path forward in the wake of others abandoning ship.
By scheduling these games, the two schools not only keep their shared history alive but also demonstrate a commitment to preserving the essence of the Pac-12 on their own terms. It’s a chance to honor their legacies while navigating a new reality, and in doing so, they remind us of the enduring spirit of college football—one that values tradition even as it adapts to an ever-changing landscape.
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