Early Look: Oregon vs Oregon State

This year’s Civil War may not be what it once was, but fans of both teams will care about the outcome potentially more than ever.

For Oregon State, beating the Ducks would serve as a gut-punch to Oregon for leaving the Beavers high and dry in what’s left of the Pac-12 Conference.

For Oregon, winning the first non-conference game against Oregon State would validate the Ducks’ move to the Big Ten Conference and distance the program from its roots in what was one of the nation’s weakest power conferences.

It’s difficult to tabulate exactly what Oregon State will look like this year as they break in a new coaching staff and an almost entirely new roster.

Last year’s team was led by coach Jonathan Smith who slowly but surely turned the Beavers’ program (which was an unmitigated disaster at the time of his hiring) into one of the Pac-12’s better teams in his final two seasons.

Now, coach Trent Bray helms the Oregon State team in what will be his first college football head coaching experience.

This is a complicating factor that makes it tougher to know what the Beavers will do schematically as the outgoing Smith was primarily an offensive coach lauded for his development of Oregon State’s offensive line and rushing attack.

The Beavers’ defense should remain schematically similar to years past as Bray was their defensive coordinator for the last two seasons and will have little reason to change his approach after Oregon State finished first (2022) and fifth (2023) in the Pac-12 Team Defense Rankings.

The challenge for the Beavers will come from a Jimmies and Joes perspective as they lost more quality players in the transfer portal than perhaps any other team in college football following 2023.

In short, I expect Oregon State to remain a disciplined and technically sound unit but one that struggles to keep up with better rosters.

Unfortunately for the Beavers, that’s exactly what Oregon represents this year.

I think this game will be a fun ceremonially but ultimately uncompetitive on the field. The environment at Reser Stadium does not figure to be as strong as in years past and Oregon is at a bigger talent advantage than ever before.

I expect Oregon to step on the gas early and hold a sizable lead going into halftime, anchored by a safe offensive approach that focuses on running the ball consistently to capitalize on Oregon State’s weakness in the defensive trenches.

Oregon coach Dan Lanning likely has some vitriol remaining from Oregon State’s unbelievable 2022 Civil War comeback in Reser Stadium that will lead to the Ducks putting up more points than are probably necessary.

I suspect that won’t bother Oregon fans.

Prediction: Oregon wins 56 – 10