Sparty will run a pass-first offense with a poor pass-blocking line and a turnover-machine passer into an Oregon defense that thrives on Havoc and turnovers.
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As head coach of Oregon State between 2018-23, Jonathan Smith went 2-4 against in-state Oregon. However, Smith’s Beavers also went 0-3 in Eugene, losing each game by an average of 15.6 points.
After taking the Michigan State job in the offseason, Smith will take his Spartans back to Eugene to build a new intraconference rivalry with the Ducks — this time in the Big Ten.
The Spartans have lost two straight and are catching 23.5 points against the 4-0 Ducks, with the total sitting around 52.5.
Here’s a preview of the Friday night Michigan State vs. Oregon matchup with a prediction and pick.
Michigan State vs. Oregon odds
TeamSpreadMoneylineOver/UnderMichigan State+23.5 (-110)+1200Over 52.5 (-110)Oregon-23.5 (-110)-2400Under 52.5 (-110)Odds via bet365
Michigan State vs. Oregon prediction
The Ducks underperformed in the early going, going 1-3 against the spread, but they’ve started to round into form. Specifically, the pass defense has looked dramatically improved.
The unit has snuck up to 12th in EPA per Pass allowed, ninth in Pass Success Rate allowed and fourth in Pro Football Focus’s coverage grades. Oregon ranks third in passes defended and is among the top 10 in creating contested catches.
Top cornerbacks Jabbar Muhammad and Brandon Johnson have allowed 15 receptions on 33 targets – suitable for a 45% completion rate – while chipping in eight PBUs and 19 tackles.
While I’m still relatively low on Oregon’s front seven, which ranks 119th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed, the unit showed up against UCLA last week, amassing four sacks and seven tackles for loss. Derrick Harmon had one of each against the Bruins and now leads all FBS defensive linemen in PFF’s Pass Rush grades.
Add it all together, and Oregon ranks fourth nationally in Havoc generated. Meanwhile, Michigan State ranks 119th in the same metric.
MSU’s offensive line has done a poor job at protecting quarterback Aidan Chiles, ranking 127th in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades and 76th in sack percentage allowed. And given he’s under pressure about one-third of the time, Chiles has thrown nine picks on 14 turnover-worthy plays, the most among Power 5 quarterbacks.
Quarterback Aidan Chiles and the MSO offense gets a brutal matchup against Oregon. Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Michigan State offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren also runs a relatively pass-happy offense, ranking 46th nationally in pass rate (51%).
So, Sparty will run a pass-first offense with a poor pass-blocking line and a turnover-machine passer into an Oregon defense that thrives on Havoc and turnovers. That’s a brutal matchup.
While I’m impressed with Michigan State’s defense so far, especially against the run, Oregon is too balanced offensively and dynamic in the passing game.
Even if the Ducks can’t get the run game going, Dillon Gabriel should eventually break down a Spartans defense that ranks 95th nationally in PFF’s coverage grades and 69th in Passing Downs Success Rate allowed.
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Michigan State vs. Oregon pick
Ultimately, I project Oregon as a 27-point favorite over Michigan State and am happy to play the Ducks at -24 or better, especially considering the excellent defensive matchup.
Pick: Oregon -23.5 (-110, bet365)
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