Oregon State football has had a rollercoaster history, but coach Jonathan Smith is on the verge of sustaining success for years to come.
As June starts to roll into July, and July eventually leads us to the start of fall camps at the beginning of August, the 2023 college football season will be here before we know it. What a season it projects to be in the Pac-12 Conference, as well. With a handful of College Football Playoff contenders, and a group of Heisman Trophy candidates leading their prospective teams, we could be set up for one of the best football seasons out west that we’ve seen in decades. To help get us prepared, we at Ducks Wire wanted to go through each team in the conference and give a comprehensive breakdown of each school, breaking down their 2023 outlook. Welcome to our Pac-12 Previews. New editions will be published every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday leading up to the start of fall camp.
Check out our previously published previews: Arizona Wildcats — Arizona State Sun Devils — California Golden Bears — Colorado Buffaloes
Oregon State had one of those years last season that Beaver fans will be talking about for quite some time to come. They finished 10-3, including a huge win over the Ducks and blowing out Florida 30-3 in the Las Vegas Bowl.
The Beavers have had seasons like this here and there before, but it’s sustaining success that has always been the problem. OSU has never been able to capitalize on success.
Until now?
That’s what the administration hopes for head coach Jonathan Smith as they will play in the new and improved Reser Stadium for the first time in 2023. And with a Pac-12 Conference that has a lot of mediocrity in it outside of the top four teams, Oregon State is primed to continue such success.
But going 10-3 again won’t be easy, especially with two very difficult road games to end the regular season. The Beavers don’t have to go 10-3 again to consider the season a success, however. The test will be whether can they beat the teams they should beat and manage to get an upset or two. If they do, Smith might be able to run for mayor in Corvallis and win by a landslide.
Here is our full breakdown of OSU heading into the season.
Toughest Games on the Schedule
Kylie Graham/The Corvallis Gazette-Times via AP
Toughest Games
Week 3 vs San Diego State (Sept. 16)
Week 5 vs Utah (Sept. 29)
Week 12 vs Washington (Nov. 18)
Week 13 at Oregon (Nov. 24)
Analysis: Finishing the regular season with perhaps the two toughest teams to play in the Pac-12 isn’t what coach Jonathan Smith hoped for. Oregon State also has just six days to prepare for a Duck team that will be ready to go and avenge a loss in Corvallis where Oregon completely fell asleep.
Hosting San Diego State is a sneaky tough non-conference game, but the middle of the season looks to be fairly easy leading Beaver fans to look towards a fun October.
Easiest Games on the Schedule
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Easiest Games
Week 1 at San Jose State (Sept. 3)
Week 2 vs UC Davis (Sept. 9)
Week 6 at California (Oct. 7)
Week 11 vs Stanford (Nov. 11)
Analysis: The Beavers will start off the season strong with two cupcakes and they should roll in October before a tough end of the season comes along. Oregon State needs to rack up the wins and beat the teams it should and hope to get a couple of wins that are 50-50 propositions such as UCLA and Utah.
Record Projection
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DucksWire Projection: 8-4 (6-3)
Analysis: The Beavers should get off to a nice start, especially if they’re able to defeat San Diego State at home in Week 3. But we project that to be a loss as the Aztecs are one of the favorites to win the Mountain West this season. We also project a slip-up against UCLA (home) or Utah (home).
It’s hard to imagine the Beavers defeating the Huskies, even in Corvallis, or Eugene in 2023. But stranger things have occurred. If everything goes right, the Beavers could go 10-2, but that’s a big IF. Still, an 8-4 regular season record isn’t something to sneeze at, especially in Corvallis.
Bowl Projection
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DucksWire Bowl Projection: Independence Bowl vs. Big 12 opponent
Analysis: It’s doubtful the Beavers will want to go to the Vegas Bowl once again and since the Independence Bowl has an official Pac-12 tie-in now, playing a Big 12 team in Shreveport, LA would be a nice December destination for OSU.
Key Players to Know
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Offensive Players to Know
DJ Uiagalelei, Quarterback
Damien Martinez, Running Back
Anthony Gould, Wide Receiver
Talise Fuaga, Offensive Lineman
Defensive Players to Know
Isaac Hodgins, Defensive Lineman
CJ Hart, Linebacker
Jaden Robinson, Cornerback
Nikko Taylor, Defensive Lineman
Notable Offseason Additions and Departures
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Notable Additions
DJ Uiagalelei, Quarterback (via Clemson)
Oluwaseyi Omotosho, Edge (via Wyoming)
Aiden Chiles, Quarterback (4-star recruit)
Kelze Howard, Defensive Lineman (4-star recruit)
Grant Starck, Offensive Lineman (via Nevada)
Notable Losses
Omar Speights, Linebacker (LSU)
Tristan Gebbia, Quarterback (Ohio State)
Chance Nolan, Quarterback (TCU)
Luke Musgrave, Tight End (Selected 42nd overall to Green Bay in the 2023 NFL draft)
Recruiting/Transfer Portal Outlook
Ken Ruinard / USA TODAY NETWORK
It’s taken Jonathan Smith a few years to get Oregon State’s recruiting ranking out from the bottom of the Pac-12. The Beavers were dead last in 2018 and 2019. An okay class in 2020 brought it up to ninth, but then back to 12th the following year.
However, Smith drastically improved recruiting with the Class of 2022 where it ranked sixth in the conference and 53rd nationally. This most recent Class of 2023 was very similar to 2022 where it was ninth in the Pac-12, but still 54th nationally.
Oregon State is thinking with the improved Reser Stadium and better facilities, those rankings will get better and better. Only time will tell. Convincing Uiagalelei to come to Corvallis turned some heads and the Beavers hope he’s not the last high-profile transfer to come to OSU. Smith also landed QB Aiden Chiles, the No. 7 QB in the class as well.
Recent History
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In Smith’s first season as head coach in 2018, the Beavers began the season at Ohio State where they lost 77-31. They finished that year 2-10. Oregon State was hitting close to rock bottom.
But a change in attitude, off-season conditioning programs, and better talent have slowly improved the trajectory of the Beavers. In five seasons, they went from 2-10 to 10-3 and defeated Florida in a bowl game.
Now they have to sustain the success and not go backward once again.
Coaching Hot Seat Temperature Check
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What’s the exact opposite of a coaching hot seat? Whatever that is, Jonathan Smith is on it. He’s very happy at his alma mater and everybody in Corvallis is happy Smith is there. It might be the best hire the Beavers have made in a long, long time.
The only way he isn’t the coach at Oregon State is if a bigger school offers him the kind of salary the Beavers just can’t match and he leaves. Even if that scenario comes up, it’s no guarantee Smith departs. He should be on the Beaver sideline for the foreseeable future and then some.
Five Year Outlook for the Program
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Oregon State’s history has suggested the Beavers will go up and down in the success department. But with Smith as coach and the university’s financial commitment to the improvements, this is OSU’s best opportunity to have a good and stable football program in the next five seasons and beyond.
This could be the Golden Age of Beaver football and that Rose Bowl drought (1964) might be coming to an end sooner rather than later.
