The Pac-12 has plenty of contenders capable of ending its College Football Playoff drought
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There will be one final season of Pac-12 football as we know it. UCLA and USC will depart from the conference to join the Big Ten officially in July 2024, which could open the door for other schools such as San Diego State to replace them. USC is the betting favorite to win the Pac-12 in 2023, but the final season of normalcy for the conference could provide fireworks with multiple teams ready to compete for a conference championship.
Aside from USC, a team that could take the next step in 2023 and win its first conference championship since 2018 is Washington. The Huskies have one of the most lethal offenses in America with quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and wide receivers Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze. After winning 11 games in 2022, the offense could be even better this fall.
This season might be the best chance for someone to break the Pac-12 College Football Playoff drought, which stretches back to 2016. Below are the Caesars Sportsbook win total projections, with predictions for each game that will be played by every Pac-12 team in 2023.
Over/under 5 wins
Wins: Northern Arizona, UTEP, at Stanford, at Colorado, at Washington State, at Arizona State, Losses: At Mississippi State, Washington, at USC, Oregon State, UCLA, Utah
Jedd Fisch has his best roster on paper heading into his third season with the Wildcats. New additions include former five-star linebacker Justin Flowe from Oregon and Colorado WR Montana Lemonious-Craig via the transfer portal. During Fisch’s first season in Tucson, Arizona went a dreadful 1-11 before improving drastically last season by finishing a respectable 5-7. Arizona hasn’t made a bowl game since 2017, but it heads into the fall with quarterback stability with Jayden de Laura under center. The Wildcats’ schedule has a few breaks and anything less than 2-1 in the nonconference would be a disappointment; the biggest early test of the season will be a road game at Mississippi State. If the Wildcats can win that one, they will have a chance to make noise heading into conference play. Pick: Over 5 (-105)
Arizona State
Over/under 5 wins
Wins: Southern Utah, Fresno State, ColoradoLosses: Oklahoma State, USC, at Cal, at Washington, Washington State, at Utah, at UCLA, Oregon, Arizona
A big question heading into the season is the starting quarterback. Will the Sun Devils opt for experience in Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne or go with true freshman Jaden Rashada, a former blue-chip who appears to be the long-term solution for first-year coach Kenny Dillingham? Arizona State in the offseason brought in weapons for whoever is under center in wide receivers Jordyn Tyson (Colorado) and Xavier Guillory and FCS All-American RB Cameron Skattebo from Sacramento State. The Sun Devils have a brutal road schedule and have USC early in the season. Unless Rashada emerges as a star immediately, it will be a long season in Tempe. Pick: Under 5 (-160)
Cal
Over/under 5 wins
Wins: North Texas, Idaho, Arizona State, Washington StateLosses: Auburn, at Washington, Oregon State, at Utah, USC, at Oregon, at Stanford, UCLA
Coach Justin Wilcox signed a large extension last offseason after he was reportedly a finalist for the Washington job. This could end up being a make-or-break year for Wilcox, though, as Cal has won only 10 total games (1-3 in 2020 during the COVID-shortened season) during the last three years. The Golden Bears haven’t made a bowl game since 2019, and that streak is on the verge of prolonging unless they take a giant leap on both sides of the ball. Cal’s QB this season will likely be TCU transfer Sam Jackson V, who spent time buried on TCU’s depth chart behind Max Duggan and Chandler Morris last fall. Wilcox is a terrific defensive mind, and that side of the ball will be tested early with games against Auburn and Idaho, the latter of which is expected to open the season as a top-10 FCS team. Pick: Under 5 (+100)
Colorado
Over/under 3.5 wins
Wins: Nebraska, Colorado State, Washington StateLosses: At TCU, at Oregon, at USC, at Arizona State, Stanford, at UCLA, Oregon State, Arizona, at Utah
Despite being projected as one of the Pac-12’s worst teams, you can make the argument that the most fascinating team in the conference will be Colorado. Deion Sanders helped his new team compile the No. 1 transfer portal class via the 247Sports rankings and transformed the dynamic of high school recruiting. Colorado had one of the worst rosters in Power Five football last season, but Sanders transformed it with a mix of former blue-chip talent like Travis Hunter and starters from previous schools like Shedeur Sanders. Colorado will inevitably beat Nebraska or TCU at the start of the season, which will make the hype grow to unreal levels. There are still holes on the roster and bringing in 70-plus new players is something that really hasn’t been done in college football. Even if Colorado wins two or three games in 2023, it would be considered an improvement from last season. Pick: Under 3.5 (-110)
Oregon
Over/under 9.5 wins
Wins: Portland State, at Texas Tech, Hawaii, Colorado, at Stanford, Washington State, Cal, USC, at Arizona StateLosses: At Washington, at Utah, Oregon State
The Ducks have one of the highest win total floors of any school in the Pac-12. There’s a realistic chance Oregon heads into a pivotal matchup with Washington on Oct. 14 with a 5-0 record. Oregon hosts Portland State, Hawaii and Colorado to start the season and faces road games at Texas Tech and Stanford. The real competition starts after that, however. Oregon plays on the road against Washington and Utah and hosts USC in the span of five games. Then, it concludes the season against arch-rival Oregon State. The pass rush is a unit that let the team down big time in 2022, and losing OC Kenny Dillingham doesn’t help its case, either. Another big storyline is QB Bo Nix and whether he takes another jump in 2023. If he does, Oregon will clear its win total. If he doesn’t, it may finish near the middle of the conference standings. Pick: Under 9.5 (-140)
Oregon State
Over/under 8.5 wins
Wins: At San Jose State, UC Davis, San Diego State, at Washington State, at Cal, UCLA, at Arizona, at Colorado, Stanford, at OregonLosses: Utah, Washington
Oregon State won 10 games in 2022 despite shaky quarterback play that was considered one of its biggest weaknesses. The Beavers recruited former five-star quarterback DJ Uiagalelei from the transfer portal in response. The former Clemson signal-caller never lived up to his recruiting hype in his three seasons in Death Valley, but he gets a chance to start over, improve his draft stock and help Oregon State compete for a Pac-12 title. Oregon State coach Jonathan Smith has a chance to unlock more of DJU’s full massive potential as a passer, and Uiagalelei has weapons around him on offense in RB Damien Martinez and WR Anthony Gould. The nonconference schedule should see Oregon State go 3-0. The Beavers avoid USC but have two huge home games against Utah and Washington, which can make or break their season. Pick: Over 8.5 (+130)
Stanford
Over/under 3 wins
Wins: Hawaii, Sacramento State, at Colorado, CalLosses: At USC, Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, Washington, at Washington State, at Oregon State, Notre Dame
One of Stanford’s biggest problems, and why it lacked success in the recruiting department during the final years of the David Shaw era, is its inability to rigorously use the transfer portal because of rigorous academic requirements. The Cardinal had just one player transfer in via the portal under Shaw, and that player got accepted into the school as a graduate transfer before joining the football team. Taylor brought in multiple players via the transfer portal this offseason, including former Syracuse QB Justin Lamson, who could challenge for the starting job. This will be a rebuilding year for Stanford because of its youthful roster, but it will have a chance to rack up some wins during the nonconference slate. The highlight of the schedule is a matchup in the third week of the season against Sacramento State, where Taylor coached from 2019-22. Pick: Over 3 (+110)
UCLA
Over/under 8.5 wins
Wins: Coastal Carolina, at San Diego State, North Carolina Central, Washington State, at Stanford, Colorado, at Arizona, Arizona State, CalLosses: At Utah, at Oregon State, at USC
UCLA is in a similar spot as Arizona State on the QB front. Do you start someone with college experience — like Kent State transfer Collin Schlee or Ethan Garbers — or do you roll with prized true freshman Dante Moore? You would think at some point in the season that Moore would be handed the keys to the offense, whether that’s in Week 1 or Week 10. He’s too talented of a player to not see the field as a freshman. The Bruins landed one of the top available running backs in the transfer portal in Carson Steele, which will give the team a huge boost on the ground attack. The Bruins open up Pac-12 play on the road at Utah, a game that could dictate how the rest of the season goes. If the Bruins do roll with Moore on Day 1, getting him reps in preparation for that game will be critical. Pick: Over 8.5 (+110)
USC
Over/under 10 wins
Wins: San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford, at Arizona State, at Colorado, Arizona, at Notre Dame, Utah, at Cal, Washington, UCLALosses: At Oregon
USC boasts the reigning Heisman winner, QB Caleb Williams, and landed two dynamic weapons in the offseason for him to throw to in Arizona transfer WR Dorian Singer and true freshman WR Zachariah Branch. The biggest question mark heading into the season is the defense. USC elected to retain DC Alex Grinch, and that unit will determine if USC can make the CFP after missing out last season. USC’s kryptonite right now is Utah, which beat the Trojans twice last season. They host that same Utah team this season in Southern California. If they win that game and get over the hump, it would help their CFP chances tremendously. Road games at Notre Dame and Oregon will also decide USC’s fate. Pick: Over 10 (-110)
Utah
Over/under 8.5 wins
Wins: Florida, at Baylor, Weber State, UCLA, at Oregon State, Cal, Oregon, Arizona State, at Arizona, ColoradoLosses: At USC, at Washington
Utah’s season got off to a rough start in 2022 in an opening-week loss at Florida. The Utes responded nicely and finished the season as the Pac-12 champs. The road back for the two-time defending champs won’t be easy, though. Utah hosts Florida to start the season, travels to Baylor the following weekend and plays conference road games at Oregon State, USC and Washington. Utah gets to 10 wins this season thanks in part to the return of Cameron Rising under center, but that won’t be enough to win the Pac-12 title again. Pick: Over 8.5 (+115)
Washington
Over/under 9.5 wins
Wins: Boise State, Tulsa, at Michigan State, Cal, at Arizona, Oregon, Arizona State, at Stanford, Utah, at Oregon State, Washington StateLosses: At USC
Washington finished the season with 11 wins in 2022, and it’s possible it clears that mark and then some this season. The biggest determining factor will be the play of Penix. He’s being hyped as a potential Heisman Trophy candidate, and if he plays like it and gets similar production from his wide receivers, the Huskies will have one of the top offenses in the country. The defense, which ranked third in the Pac-12 last season in yards per game allowed, returns Bralen Trice, Zion Tupuola-Fetui and Tuli Letuligasenoa, among others. The toughest road games will be at Michigan State and USC, the latter of which on Nov. 4 will have high stakes. Pick: Over 9.5 (+120)
Washington State
Over/under 5 wins
Wins: Colorado State, Northern Colorado, at Arizona State, StanfordLosses: Wisconsin, Oregon State, UCLA, at Oregon, Arizona, at Cal, Colorado, Washington
Anything less than a 2-1 start to the season will be considered a disappointment. The Cougars host Wisconsin in Luke Fickell’s first road game with the Badgers. Washington State also has one of the most favorable schedules in the conference; they avoid USC and Utah and host Washington in the Apple Cup. QB Cameron Ward is the X-factor who needs to take a big step in order to stay afloat in a competitive conference. Washington State lost two key players via the transfer portal in LB Francisco Mauigoa and WR De’Zhaun Stribling. Five wins definitely seem attainable, and games against Cal and Colorado will determine if the Cougars make a bowl game this season. Pick: Under 5 (+110)
